Alexander Yoshizuka-Panijel
09/13/2019
ENGL 110
Professor Creaney
The Coming Recession
The topic of a recession seems to always be around the corner despite times of economic prosperity – a pervasive theme of perpetual uncertainty and trepidation despite fortunate times. The accessible news and documents recounting the disastrous, almost harrowing, details of the major recessions is to blame – the public can always relive the horror. However, recently, not all being irrational hysteria, an integral indicator of a recession was triggered: the bond-yield curve was inverted, an indicator that has preceded virtually all recessions. This has turned speculative talks about recession to a possible reality. The following sources all discuss the bond-yield curve inverting coupled with other key economic indicators. The sentiment on this ranges from optimism to pessimism, leaning a lot towards pessimism, detailed by precise language and nuanced tones that usurps the reader’s tentative sentiment.
The following article by Read Pickert on Bloomberg, a prominent source for financial news, discusses factors, indicators, that can lead the U.S economy into a recession. In this source, it slightly resembles a scientific study of the economy for the following reasons. The author reviews each of the following economic indicators: Jobless Claims, Consumer Spending, Credit Conditions, Average Weekly Hours, Housing Market, Yield Curve, Manufacturing, Equipment Orders, and Profit Margins with corresponding graphs and colours, green, yellow or red, that describe how healthy the indicator is – how far the indicator is on the verge of indicating a recession.
The author maintains her impartial stance on the topic of the recession through the use of straight to the point, matter-of-fact and technical language. This creates the tone and genre of a scientific paper with many analyses, technical graphs, esoteric knowledge, and little opinionated statements.
Graphs, a tool that sets the form of the genre in this article, are used to help convey the technicality of the recession indicators. The author provides explanations for the technical indicators and its corresponding graphs, however, I argue that to have a deeper and fuller understanding of what the author is talking about, background knowledge on economics and business is required. The following quote: “A related measure, U.S. factory orders for business equipment — or bookings for non-military capital goods excluding aircraft — has been cooling since the end of 2017.” explains that factory orders for business equipment have been cooling, but other than the stated fact, what more can we, non-businessmen, do with this information. Its consequences and general cause and effect relationships are not mentioned at all or with vague nuances, as it is up to the reader’s knowledge to understand them. Hence, the audience for this article is narrowed down significantly to people of technical expertise in the field of Economics and Business. The use of graphs itself also shows that this article is intended for mature people, college students at the least, as it requires some degree of maturity to read and try to comprehend graphs.
Interestingly, the article does not give a conclusion after rating every recession indicator. However, the author’s tone insinuates that some worry and, perhaps inferred, precautions to be taken. The following quote: “Still, claims have often leveled off before surging — a period we might be in now.” has a nuanced tone of pessimism through the use of a parenthetical statement. Not only is this statement assertively worded and structured, but it is also said at the end of the introduction. This, I believe, the second point, subliminally sets the stance for the article. Furthermore, this is after the fact that the indicator the author was talking about, Jobless claims, was given the color green as a rating – the highest degree which an indicator can receive in rating – yet the author has decided to word her analysis pessimistically. Another example is the following: “While things look good for now, figures due Friday are projected to show cooler gains in August.” In light of optimistic news, the author continues to cast a pessimistic tone.
The purpose of this article is also as interesting and unique as the audience it is intended for. The article resembles a medical checkup of the U.S Economy, going through the possible symptoms and rating it with a color that represents its health. This further shows that this article is intended for technical economists as their very job is to measure the health of the economy.
A counterpart to this article, but starkly different at the same time, is this NewYorkTimes article, “The Bond Market Is Trying To Tell Us Something (Worry)”, by Matt Phillips. The author analyses and explains recession indicators, coinciding with simpler graphs, in further depth but in layman terms. The kind of recession indicators analysed are concepts everyday Americans have heard before – interest rates, inflation, and the Federal Reserve.
The medium for this article, a newspaper publishing company that caters to the general everyday American, is the reason for the simpler layman descriptions and graphs of recession indicators. There are more aspects that are greatly shaped because of this medium and genre, such as language, tone, stance, and purpose.
A topic that is rather grave and solemn is spoken about in an informal, but more approachable, manner. The author understands that even the slightest bit of technical jargon will scare away some people. Lest scaring some audiences away, the author describes inflation, in the context of long-term bonds, as the boogeymen: “One of the biggest boogeymen for investors in long-term bonds is inflation.” This breaks down the rather highly perceived barriers associated with the topics of bonds and economics for the general public. This technique also makes these topics less mundane and more appealing, so the author can expand the demographics of his audience and not just limit it to people with esoteric knowledge. Another method the author uses to make the article easier to follow and read is the call and response: “When investors get nervous, they buy government bonds. Why? Governments (usually) pay back their debts, so those bonds are a safe bet.” This method forces the reader to ask oneself the questions he or she should already be asking when reading the article. This method makes topics that can sometimes get convoluted and dull more interesting and much easier to read.
The overall tonality of this article is pessimistic. Ominous titles are set for each recession indicator: “Yields Are Falling Everywhere”, “The Yield Curve Has Inverted”, and “The Fed Is Watching” are a few examples of this. The reader goes into each description and analysis of a recession indicator with emotions of worry and fear set by the subtitles. This ominous and pessimistic tone is apparent everywhere in this article. Although, at the end of the introduction, it states the following: “Does it mean a recession is imminent? Certainly not. Part of what makes the bond market so ominous is that it’s not terribly specific. But there is good information buried in the weeds.” Despite the statements of reassurance and optimism, the rest of the article does the very opposite.
Other than this article being informative and feeding into the pessimistic sentiments of the general population, I believe, it does none other. The author concludes the article with terse statements regarding how well the U.S economy is doing but ultimately states that there is “something strange is afoot”. Solidifying the stance that there is something to fear. Thus, no solid conclusion is given at the end nor any precautionary measures for the recession, so, ultimately, this article is an ominous informative.
The nature of magazines is to entice their audience with eye-catching titles and exaggerated claims to evoke the reader’s emotions, so they typically do not waste time writing articles that oppose the prevailing sentiment – an incoming recession. This is why “Worried about a Recession? Relax.” by Steve Hanke is a unique piece. The medium coupled with the stance, which is seen by the title, produces a magazine article with an anti-prevailing sentiment.
The article begins by grounding its stance that the incoming recessions is heavily dependent on consumer sentiment, and how the pessimistic sentiments spread by media outlets are degrading this. A degradation in consumer sentiment affects consumer purchases and investments, which in turn can have repercussions strong enough to trigger a recession (“Hanke”). This theory is expanded quite significantly with detailed explanations and other theories by notable economists. 3 notable names and their theories were used to explain the theory of consumer sentiments and their impact on the economy. The author here uses the rhetorical device of ethos, by using credible names and their world-renowned theories. The magazine strays away from the rhetorical device of logos, which the other sources I reviewed relied heavily on by analysing recession indicators and its statistical data that are incontrovertible. The author strays away from logical data and substitutes it with theories of credible economists to create a tone of reassurance throughout the article.
The approach this medium takes, compared to Bloomberg and the NewYorkTimes, is much different in terms of delivery. Instead of analysing recession indicators, it only expands theories that are backed by many credible names. This makes it less scientific and more accessible to a larger audience. This gives the article the purpose of quelling the fear of the public. The author does this by using the rhetorical technique of pathos, a credible source, stating that a negative feedback loop is what is perpetuating the worry and fear of the possibility of a recession.
“Understanding the Great Recession” by Lawrence Christiano et alia is a scholarly source that theorizes the causes of the Great Recession of 2008 using economic models and eventually developing their models in this academic paper. The source is an extract from a scholarly journal in Economics called the American Economic Association. The medium of this source defines certain aspects of the audience, language, and tone that are typically associated with scholarly sources.
The source’s genre is a scientific study. Pages of mathematical equations and technical graphs all intended to back the economic model the authors are trying to create. The level of detail and technicality that is in this source does not even compare to the other sources I have analysed. This source is truly for people with esoteric knowledge, which brings me to the argument that this source is intended for graduate students of economics, at the very least, and more for doctoral scholars writing their dissertation on economics. The paper includes countless references to existing economic theories and pages of mathematical proof and graphs. Thus, the academic paper mostly consists of explanations of these mathematical proofs and technical graphs. This makes it difficult to analyse the source’s tone as the paper is quite scientific. The introduction and conclusion of this academic source do not spare any sentences or words for opinionated statements. However, I do not believe there is no tonality in this source. I believe it is considerably nuanced and it requires either a very literate person or someone up to par with the author’s expertise in economics to find the tonality expressing the author’s sentiments.
The general sentiment towards the idea of a recession is unison – great apprehension. Virtually all media outlets have identified this shared sentiment and have been churning out pieces explaining, theorising, and debating the possibility of a recession with a strong pessimistic tone. Based on my rhetorical analysis of 4 ranging sources, in terms of audience, tone, language purpose, medium, genre, and stance, I believe a strong agenda to push a pessimistic narrative is present. I understand this is probably to entice viewers to read their articles, but when the economy is in the hands of consumers, and ultimately their sentiment, I believe news outlets should be more careful with their words. Furthermore, it was rather difficult to find a source that had a hard stance on their not being a recession. This just shows how much the growing sentiment of an incoming recession is prevailing. The sources I reviewed, the majority being media outlets, are unnecessarily pessimistic for a concept that is quite obscure.
MLA Citations:
Pickert, Reade. “U.S. Recession Indicators Haven’t Made Up Their Minds.” Bloomberg.com, 12 Sept. 2019, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-12/u-s-recession-indicators-flash-mixed-signals-as-talk-heats-up.
Phillips, Matt. and Grocer, Stephen. “The Bond Market Is Trying to Tell Us Something (Worry).” NewYorkTime.com, 12 Sept. 2019, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/30/business/bond-yield-curve-recession.html
Hanke, Steve. “Worried About A Recession? Relax.” Forbes, Forbes Magazine, 7 Sept. 2019, https://www.forbes.com/sites/stevehanke/2019/09/07/worried-about-a-recession-relax/#17d4ab45196b.
Christiano, Lawrence J., et al. “Understanding the Great Recession.” American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, vol. 7, no. 1, 2015, pp. 110–167., 12 Sept. 2019 www.jstor.org/stable/43189952.
